NEW YORK: Global sales for battery electric passenger vehicles (BEVs) is projected to grow by 30% in 2025, compared to 2024 levels, to 15.1 million units, according to a S&P Global Mobility report.
"In 2025, BEVs will account for an estimated 16.7% of global light vehicle sales. For reference, 2024 posted an estimated 11.6 million BEVs globally, for 13.2% market share," said the report.
Forecasted BEV share by region is as follows:
The S&P Global Mobility report also noted that through 2024, a host of OEMs have been walking back ambitious electrification plans for the coming five to 15 years.
A key concern is how "natural" EV demand fares, as governments fine-tune policy support, especially incentives and subsidies, EV industrial policy, and tariffs.
Outside China, automakers face twin challenges in the electrification transition — scaling output of sellable BEVs and finding willing customers to buy them.
Looking beyond 2025, many uncertainties persist regarding the pace of electrification, especially regarding charging infrastructure, grid power, battery supply chains, global sourcing trends, tariff trade barriers, the rate of technological advancements, and the necessary level of support from policymakers to facilitate the shift from fossil fuels to electric alternatives.
"Despite the gloom, electric vehicles remain an important automotive growth sector. Currently, China's NEV program and Europe's "Fit for 55" initiative remain intact to support a sustainable mobility future," said the report.
Less clear are President-elect Trump's intentions for US electric vehicle support, especially regarding the IRA and various policy initiatives.
"The auto industry continues to navigate uncertain terrain as we enter 2025, particularly as we anticipate President-elect Trump's incoming universal tariffs," said S&P Global Mobility executive director of global light vehicle forecasting Mark Fulthorpe.
"During 2025, the production landscape will change dramatically, as global trade slows, and as retaliatory measures are likely to emerge."
